Which player creates the most dangerous shots from each Canadian team?
Projected Goal Rate is a way of calculating how likely a shot attempt is to go into the net. Using NHL EDGE technology, Justin Bourne looks at who has the highest average PGR on each Canadian NHL team.
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Nathan MacKinnon’s career shooting percentage is 10.5, and he’s used that in concert with volume shooting to put up goal totals of 39, 41, 42, and 51. His shooting percentage trails just behind a guy like Jack Eichel, and both of those players trail repeat-40-goal-scorer William Nylander by a good amount, who scores on 12.6 per cent of his shots.
And all three of them are behind the guy who’s set to become the greatest goal scorer in NHL history, Alex Ovechkin, who boasts a career shooting percentage of 13.
None of them, however, score as frequently on their shots as Zach Hyman, whose career shooting percentage is 13.5.
So, is Hyman a “better shooter” than Ovechkin?
Um, no. Absolutely, definitively, not even a debate here. No, he is not.
But Hyman has a higher “projected goal rate,” because he’s a player whose shot total probably doesn’t do justice to how good he is at creating dangerous shot attempts. We know Hyman scores just about all his goals from about two feet in front of the net, often in the crease, and he’s smart enough to get to places where Connor McDavid can lure in the defence and hit him for backdoor tap-ins.
On average, then, the types of shots Hyman attempts are more likely to go in. He primarily waits for shots from great spots, which is neither criticism nor praise. He just creates the type of shots that have a greater likelihood of going in, whether they actually do or not. This is to say, Hyman’s shot attempts have a higher “projected goal rate.”
AWS has used NHL EDGE technology (NHL Puck and Player Tracking) to dial in this concept of projected goal rate (PGR), which I’ve written about before in detail here. In that piece, you’ll see some of the factors they consider when calculating a shot’s PGR. Was it some floater from distance, or was it a backdoor one-timer? Was the goalie forced to move before the shot, did it come off a pass that crossed the centre of the ice, or was it redirected farther from the net?
You can check out that article for more details on what goes into PGR, but for our purposes today, I thought we’d look at which player on each Canadian NHL team has the highest PGR on average. They may not have the most goals or shots, but they’re doing something right with the type of looks they’re creating.
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On average, 5.12 per cent of shot attempts go in (not shots on goal, but all shot attempts). Below features the PGR of each player featured, with some quick examples.
Let’s start out west and move east.
Pius Suter – 13.73% average PGR
One of the very basic pieces of offensive IQ any player can have is “Hey, if I drift to the back door and the puck happens to pop over to me, it’s a free goal.” Suter’s PGR has been aided by some full-ice rush chances, but by and large he’s been a player who’s excelled at finding spots, and having the ability to put the puck away. He’s clearly got some offensive IQ, and is therefore the type of guy who would benefit from having good passing linemates.
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Jonathan Huberdeau – 10.71% average PGR
Huberdeau is 199th in the league in shots, but 76th in goals, tied with Sidney Crosby and Anze Kopitar. He doesn’t create many shots, but he is what I would call a pure “lurker.” Now, not everybody on a team can be a lurker, some players have to play more in traffic to create space for someone like Huberdeau. Lurkers are more susceptible to bouts of good and bad luck, as they require the puck to either bounce to them or be passed through people directly.
But when lurkers do get shots, they’re often highly dangerous ones, as the main PGR factor influenced would be the goalie’s angle, and the pass coming across the centre meridian.
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Leon Draisaitl – 12.35% average PGR
Draisaitl has a number of offensive superpowers and he’s one of the few best goal scorers in hockey. He’s so adept at shooting when the goalie doesn’t expect it. But he also generates a super high PGR by digging in on the back-post and cleaning up chaos, as well as making the goalie move with his ability to finish on the backhand. Here’s just a couple examples of both, with the backhand and back-post clean-up duty featured. The last goal is both a backhand, and back-post.
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Mark Scheifele – 13.91% average PGR
A lot of high PGR guys are like Hyman — they bang in rebounds in the paint, or tip pucks on top of the goalie. That ain’t Scheifele, though. This guy belongs to the collection of elite back-side shooters who get their shots off the pass, with the goalie moving and their angle off. Maybe you’d get more total shots jamming yourself into traffic, but everybody can use an outside gunner who finishes off passes when the goalie isn’t set. Scheifele is elite at getting into these spots, as you can see here. He’s a top-end finisher, too.
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Matthew Knies – 12.12% average PGR
Knies is maybe my favourite of the bunch, because he’s a pure garbage man. Almost none of his shots are the type of back-door lurkers we see above, but rather tips where he was first screening the goalie, or where he was just being a big man in the thick of the traffic and cleaning up the type of offensive zone messes Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner create. He’s the perfect guy to take advantage of what his linemates make happen.
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Josh Norris – 10.89% average PGR
Norris is extremely dangerous off the rush when he gets a lateral pass. Those factors I’ve mentioned before (like a pass across the middle of the ice, and a moving goalie) show up big on his shots. He’s a guy who benefits from linemates with good vision, as they’ll know that if they can get it to him in those spots, he’ll have a good chance of putting it away. Generally, Norris is more of the Scheifele mode of back-door shooter, but again, his best PGR plays show up off the rush.
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And finally…
Brendan Gallagher – 11.30% average PGR
Gallagher is the most unique of the bunch, in that he does such a good job almost exclusively off high tips and rebounds. If you can move the puck low to high then get a shot, your best bet to score is having someone like Gallagher out there who cruises through the goalie’s eyes and gets little touches on pucks, where even if they don’t go in they become harder for the goalie to freeze. This season, he’s had some puck luck there, including the one that goes in off his shin below.
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if(gettheDUFI){ queryString += "dufiid=" + gettheDUFI + '&'; queryString += "ppid=" + gettheDUFI + '&'; var ppid = "ppid=" + gettheDUFI + '&'; }
var DUFI_IP = false; if (localStorage.getItem("consent") !== null && localStorage.getItem("consent-targeting") !== null) DUFI_IP = sessionStorage.getItem("DUFI_IP");
if(DUFI_IP){ queryString += "dufiip=" + DUFI_IP + '&'; }
adServerUrl = adServerUrl.replace(/cust_params=/, ppid + 'cust_params=' + encodeURIComponent(queryString) ); }
$el.after( unescape("%3Cscript src=\"" + (document.location.protocol == "https:" ? "https://sb" : "http://b") + ".scorecardresearch.com/beacon.js\" %3E%3C/script%3E") );
$( document ).one( 'ready', function() { $( "#video_container-563253" ).SNPlayer( { bc_account_id: "1704050871", bc_player_id: "JCdte3tMv", //autoplay: true, //is_has_autoplay_switch: false, bc_videos: 6365646064112, is_has_continuous_play: "false", adserverurl: adServerUrl, section: "", thumbnail: "https://www.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/6365646064112-1024x576.jpg", direct_url: "https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/video/canadiens-gallagher-always-in-good-position-for-tips-in-front/" }); });
There are a lot of ways to generate a dangerous shot attempt in the NHL, and I love that the above encapsulates the many ways individual players have found to have success. PGR from AWS helps us determine which players and teams are being effective (or the opposite), which makes it one of my sneaky-favourite stats to track.
Stay tuned for more updates on this as the season goes on.
