Why free-falling Sabres continue to lose games
The Buffalo Sabres are playing a different style than previous years, but the results remain the same. Unless the Sabres can go on a run it will be yet another quiet spring in Buffalo.
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“We don’t have palm trees.”
That quote from Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams will endure in Buffalo, where long-suffering fans have started bringing inflatable plants to the rink as a form of protest. Adams’ quip was part of a larger conversation about Buffalo not being a “destination city” for NHL players. That is a byproduct of the Sabres missing the playoffs in each of the past 13 seasons.
At this rate, the Sabres will surely make it 14 playoff-less campaigns in a row. They are winless in 10 consecutive games (0-7-3) — their longest streak since a franchise-record 18-gamer in 2020-21. (When this skid started on Nov. 27, Buffalo was in a playoff spot.)
The Sabres entered this season as the youngest team in the league with an average age of 25.3 years. Adams turned to coach Lindy Ruff to bring the kind of structure and accountability that seemed to slip under predecessor Don Granato.
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It clearly remains a work in progress. Buffalo, which averages 2.94 goals per game (21st), appears to have undergone a stylistic shift under Ruff. Two seasons ago, when the Sabres scored the third-most goals in the NHL, they were dynamic off the rush. Buffalo finished second in rush scoring chances and rush goals at 5-on-5. The Sabres, who were seventh in rush chances at 5-on-5 last season, are 13th so far this year.
Ruff has the Sabres dumping in the puck on 51.9 per cent of their 5-on-5 entries. In each of the previous two seasons, Buffalo had the league’s lowest dump-in rate — 43.7 per cent in 2023-24 and 40.7 per cent in 2022-23. As a result, the Sabres have jumped to third in forecheck chances at 5-on-5.
The issue, however, is that the Sabres have been woefully inaccurate from the slot, regardless of how they attempt to generate offence. Only 54.5 per cent of their overall chances at 5-on-5 have hit the net — 30th in the league.
To make matters worse, the Sabres’ power play is on the fritz, ranking 30th at 14.6 per cent. Buffalo, which is mired in a 2-for-30 slump, struggles at most of the aspects that lead to success on the power play. That is reflected in the Sabres’ average of 0.19 expected goals per two minutes, which ranks 31st in the league.
“It’s just tough to win games when you’re not scoring on the power play or even generating,” Sabres forward Tage Thompson told reporters over the weekend. “I think if we figure that out, we’ll start winning games.”
Despite all those problems, Thompson is experiencing an offensive resurgence. His 16 goals in 26 games has him on pace for a career-high 48.
But Ruff is more concerned with Thompson’s and Dylan Cozens’ play in the defensive zone as the Sabres’ top-six centres. Thompson has been on the ice for 0.91 expected goals against at 5-on-5 per 20 minutes — 274th out of 421 forwards who have played at least 100 minutes in that situation. Cozens, meanwhile, is even further down the list at No. 360.
“Our (centremen) inside this system (have) a lot of work to do,” Ruff told reporters last week. “Tage Thompson has a lot of work to do. I’ve asked those guys personally, ‘If this is too hard, I’ll put you on the wing. You’ll play the wing.’ That’s for Dylan. That’s for Tage. … Twenty-some games is enough that if you can’t make the read, then you’ve got to go to the wing.”
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported last week that the Sabres are getting calls on Cozens, who is “legitimately wanted.” Since busting out with 31 goals and 68 points in 2022-23 and signing a seven-year contract ($7.1-million cap hit), Cozens has 24 goals and 60 points in 110 games since the start of last season.
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Cozens, 23, is not the only young Sabres player having a hard time this season. Jack Quinn, a recent healthy scratch who appeared primed for a breakout year, scored twice Sunday against the Toronto Maple Leafs — the 23-year-old’s first two non-empty-net goals of the season. Owen Power, 22, has committed a team-high seven turnovers that have led to goals against and was benched last week after a failed clearing attempt set up a New York Rangers power-play goal.
It is a shame that such a hockey-crazed city has not experienced the playoffs in nearly a decade and a half. But unless the Sabres can go on a run, which they have shown no signs of doing, it will be another quiet spring in Buffalo.
