Why Matthew Knies is an important layer the Leafs haven’t had
Toronto has relied on its core four to produce the most offence and play the biggest, toughest minutes, but have lacked anyone else to push them. Justin Bourne writes why Matthew Knies is important to changing the equation this season.
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One theme on our radio show Real Kyper and Bourne for the past few seasons has been the idea that the Maple Leafs are two teams sharing one sweater. Team A is comprised of the core four forwards, and Team B is … literally everyone else.
For years, Team A could play like dogs for 55 minutes, but if the score was close in the waning moments, they’d be right out there grabbing every spare minute of the late-game push. Even when they did struggle in-game and one had to be sat down, it would’ve been hard to figure out who to reward with extra opportunities. Who else was supposed to score?
This season may present Toronto with its first obvious option, in the form of Matthew Knies. The sophomore forward has improved in leaps and bounds year-over-year, and a fresh set of eyeballs from coach Craig Berube has earned Knies (and the team) an opportunity they haven’t had in the recent past.
We’ll get more into Knies in a few, but let’s just start with how the Leafs have looked for depth offence in the regular season behind Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares.
When the core was probably still too young, there were crossover years with Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak. But they didn’t see that through, and eventually hoped players such as Kasperi Kapanen or Connor Brown or Trevor Moore could provide some depth scoring. But they didn’t see those options through either, and so the Leafs started trying to bring in UFA help each off-season.
Zach Hyman was really just turning it up offensively when he left after the 2020-21 season, and since then, there’s usually been one other forward who’s been decent offensively, followed by a precipitous drop off.
2021-22
Lowest core four stat line: John Tavares, 27G-49A = 76 points
Next up: Michael Bunting, 23G-40A = 63 points
Next: Alex Kerfoot, 13G-38A = 51 points
In this season, the drop off in ice time from Tavares to Bunting was about 2.5 minutes per game. A clear divide.
2022-23
Lowest core four stat line: John Tavares, 36G-44A = 80 points
Next up: Michael Bunting, 23G-26A = 49 points
Next: Calle Jarnkrok, 20G-19A = 39 points
The gap between Tavares’ ice time (17:39) to Bunting’s in 2022-23 was nearly two minutes. Jarnkrok played 14:23 per game.
2023-24
Lowest core four stat line: John Tavares, 29G-36A = 65 points
Next up: Max Domi, 9G-38A = 47 points
Next: Tyler Bertuzzi, 21G-22A = 43 points
Tavares got back closer to 18 minutes last season, while the next guy up in terms of TOI was Bertuzzi, who saw 16:03 per game while being slotted on the top line.
Talk about a clear divide between the guys who play and score and the rest of the group. Even those like Bunting and Bertuzzi who got to ride on the same bus as Team A can’t claim to have driven it very often. They were fortunate because someone had to play there.
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This season, Matthew Knies sits second on the team in goals with seven, and finds himself logging 17:51 of ice time per game, well over a minute more than Tavares. And that doesn’t even do Knies’ ice time justice.
There was a clump of games around mid-to-late October where Knies was playing a similar amount of ice time to last season:
Oct. 21 vs TB: 14:31
Oct. 22 @ CBJ: 16:56
Oct. 24 vs STL: 14:22
Since then he’s played six games and had more than 18 minutes in each. The past three have looked like this:
Nov. 2 @STL: 19:21
Nov. 3 @MIN: 19:43
Nov. 5 vs BOS: 20:04
Knies is killing penalties, playing on the power play and, at two points behind Tavares and Matthews, is the first legitimate grocery stick player between Team A and Team B in years (Max Domi and Max Pacioretty both have six points and neither plays 15 minutes per game).
As much as it looked like Bobby McMann (or even Nick Robertson) might be able to elevate into the class that bridges these internal teams, neither has impressed their coach enough to get the required opportunities (though I’ll continue to argue McMann could use more of a shot at it).
What’s changed with Knies is half-a-step, and an understanding of what’s going to make him effective. I thought his quote after Tuesday night’s win, where he scored a goal and an assist, was particularly illuminating:
“I’m a bigger player, so I like to take his eyes and just make plays down there. Let the skill guys be on the outsides, and they make incredible plays. So, I just got to put my stick in a good area, and I’m sure they can find me.”
What stands out there is that he refers to the other players as the “skill” guys. Rather than see himself as some dangly-fun goal scorer – a role he’s surely played with success in college and below – Knies has been willing to adapt his unique skill set to what works at the NHL level.
Through a month of the NHL-season, the just-recently-turned 22-year-old has found himself climbing charts that speak to the style of game he’s playing.
Via SportLogiq, here’s a few categories where he ranks inside the top-50 league wide:
|
STAT |
LEAGUE RANKING |
|
Puck Battle Wins |
T-43rd |
|
Rebounds Recovered |
T-40th |
|
Rebound Chances |
T-25th |
|
Inner Slot Shots |
T-8th |
|
Expected Goals |
17th |
Ranking eighth in inner slot shots and 17th in expected goals league-wide validates Knies’ early success as being repeatable.
He’s also tied for the Leafs team-lead in hits with 34 on the season, if you like that sort of thing.
You could see him brandish his size as a weapon on Tuesday night versus the Bruins. Brandon Carlo is a big man, and he spent most of his night trying to figure out how to handle Knies. I’m not going to pretend this is rocket science, because it isn’t. The Leafs’ big forward keeps ‘er simple:
His traffic in front leads to a goal for Morgan Rielly:
His traffic in front leads to a goal for Nylander:
And now Carlo gives up on trying to move Knies, instead thinks about fronting shots, and now that leads to a goal:
It’s worth noting that in 2022 the Leafs added Ryan O’Reilly, who became a legitimate “next layer” for the Leafs in the playoffs, and you could see how much it meant to their team. It was, coincidentally(?), the one year they won a playoff series.
The Leafs are getting their first real glimpse at a full regular season with another scorer beyond the core. As they assess their needs when they’re building towards the trade deadline, I wouldn’t be surprised if that effects they type of players they target to supplement the roster.
The change in Knies’ game changes things for the team.
