Why Predators are last in NHL after spending $108.5M
The Nashville Predators spent over $100 million in contracts to acquire 40-goal scorers Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos, and top four defenceman Brady Skjei, this past summer. So why are they at the bottom of the league nearly a quarter of the way into the season?
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The Nashville Predators were widely considered the winners of the NHL off-season. General manager Barry Trotz whipped out the chequebook and committed $108.5 million in total dollars to three of the top available free agents — Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei.
After making a surprise playoff appearance last season, the additions of two 40-goal scorers and a top-four defenceman were supposed to push the Predators toward contender status. Instead, they are the worst team in the league a month into the season. Nashville, which started 0-5-0, has lost six of eight (2-4-2) entering its matchup against the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday.
“Our team hasn’t played well,” Trotz told The Tennessean last week. “I’m not shying away from that. We don’t have any part of our lineup going. What’s even working right now?”
Trotz targeted Stamkos and Marchessault to strengthen the Predators’ offence, but the veteran forwards have combined to score one goal at 5-on-5 through 16 games. In fact, Marchessault, who led the Vegas Golden Knights with 69 points last season, is still searching for his first 5-on-5 point as a member of the Predators.
Regression was bound to come for Marchessault, who reached the 40-goal mark for the first time in his 11th season. Prior to last year, Marchessault averaged 27.7 goals per 82 games. Part of the problem is that Marchessault has strayed from the slot, where he scored 28 of his goals last season. He has taken 39 per cent of his shot attempts this season from there, down from 48.4 per cent.
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Stamkos’ impact at 5-on-5 began to diminish over his final few seasons with the Tampa Bay Lightning, which surely played a part in the franchise’s decision to move on from its most popular player. That decline has carried over to this season, where the Predators are generating 45 per cent of the expected goals during Stamkos’ minutes. (Stamkos had a 46.4 expected-goal percentage at 5-on-5 last season despite spending a considerable amount of time alongside elite play-drivers Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.)
Individually, Stamkos is averaging 1.19 scoring chances per game at 5-on-5, which ranks tied for 204th out of 377 forwards who have played at least 100 minutes in that situation. Most of Stamkos’ production, unsurprisingly, has come on the power play. He has recorded six of his eight points on the man advantage, including three one-timer goals from his left-circle office.
Predators coach Andrew Brunette placed Stamkos and Marchessault on the same line to start the season but has since split them up after they failed to gain traction offensively (36.9 xGF% in 101:51 of shared ice time at even strength). Recently, Stamkos has been skating on the top line with Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly. Marchessault has settled on the second line with Colton Sissons and Gustav Nyquist.
Skjei was a key cog in the Carolina Hurricanes’ stifling defence, averaging 21:17 of ice time per game over his four full seasons with the team. But he is struggling to adapt to his new surroundings; Nashville has been outscored 19-8 at 5-on-5 when he has been on the ice.
Skjei’s 37.2 xGF% at 5-on-5 is way down from last season, when the Hurricanes generated 52.5 per cent of the expected goals when he was on the ice. His turnover rate has spiked to 17.8 per cent — 181st out of 200 defencemen with at least 100 minutes of ice time at 5-on-5.
The Predators’ offensive issues extend beyond Stamkos, Marchessault and Skjei. Their shot quality has taken a nosedive, falling from 11th to 31st in expected goals for per game at 5-on-5.
“We’re just a little bit out of rhythm, out of sync,” Brunette told reporters last week. “We’re in good areas to shoot pucks. We don’t really want to shoot pucks. We still want to be pretty. And then our puck play in general, our execution hasn’t been good. Our support hasn’t been good. It just seems like we have a lot of guys on different pages. That makes the game really hard.”
As American Thanksgiving approaches, the Predators have ground to make up in the Western Conference playoff race. Over the past four full seasons (excluding the COVID-impacted 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons), only 15 teams (23.8 per cent) that were not in a playoff spot on that date ultimately reached the post-season. If Nashville’s high-priced free agents do not get their acts together soon, Trotz could be forced to change course.
All stats via Sportlogiq
