Why Senators’ playoff fortunes rest on shoulders of Brady Tkachuk
If the Senators are to end their lengthy playoff drought, their leaders must rise to the occasion. That starts with captain Brady Tkachuk, writes Adam Vingan.
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It has been way too long since we were treated to the Battle of Ontario in the playoffs.
The last post-season clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators was in 2004. Of course, the Senators have not qualified at all since 2017. But when the bitter rivals face each other Saturday at Canadian Tire Centre (Hockey Night in Canada, Sportsnet and Sportsnet+, 7 p.m. ET), it could be a playoff preview. There is a 12.4 per cent chance of Toronto and Ottawa meeting in the first round. (Insert “Dumb and Dumber” meme here.)
If the Senators are to end their lengthy playoff drought, their leaders must rise to the occasion. That starts with captain Brady Tkachuk, who now has gone a career-worst nine games in a row without a point. After losing 2-0 to old teammate Joonas Korpisalo and the Boston Bruins on Thursday, the Senators have been shut out in consecutive games for the first time since February 2022. (It was also their fifth shutout loss in the past 11 games.)
Tkachuk has been one of the NHL’s most dominant power forwards over the past few years, scoring 120 goals since the start of the 2021-22 season. He has recorded 103 of those goals from the slot, including 66 from the inner slot.
Although Tkachuk has not appeared on the scoresheet in more than two weeks, his personal underlying numbers remain strong. He continues to pound away at pucks in front of the net, but his shot has been less accurate during his slump. Over the past nine games, 20 of Tkachuk’s 38 scoring chances (52.6 per cent) have been on net. By comparison, he had a 61.9 per cent success rate before this stretch. That helps explain the drop in inner-slot shots.
Overall, Tkachuk ranks fourth this season with 24.6 expected goals but has scored just 18. The minus-6.6 difference in actual goals is sixth-worst in the league. He has scored 4.6 goals below expected in the past nine games alone.
Simply put: Tkachuk has been plagued by rotten luck, but his cold streak has come at a bad time.
At the same time, however, the Senators have had less control of the flow of play during Tkachuk’s minutes. They have generated 49.8 per cent of the shot attempts and 53.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five with their captain on the ice since Jan. 9. Through 39 games, Ottawa generated 53.3 per cent of the shot attempts and 57.3 per cent of the expected goals when Tkachuk was on the ice.
One of the primary objectives for Senators coach Travis Green entering his first season was to improve the team’s defensive structure. He has accomplished that: Ottawa is eighth in expected goals against per game in all situations, a big jump from its 16th-place finish last season.
Goaltending has drastically improved as well. The Senators, who allowed a league-worst 22.3 goals above expected last season, have saved 6.62 goals above expected this season (16th). Rookie Leevi Merilainen has stepped up in the absence of injured starter Linus Ullmark, posting a 2.02 goals-against average and .927 save percentage since the holiday break ended.
The problem, though, is that the Senators’ performance on the other end has suffered. After averaging 4.22 goals across nine October games, they are the lowest-scoring team in the league since Nov. 1 (2.38 per game), despite ranking 15th in expected goals per game (3.14). Ottawa has a respectable .538 points percentage (19-16-4) over that span because of its defence and goaltending, but the lack of offence will eventually catch up to the club.
Ottawa’s scoring woes are widespread. But Tkachuk, who has never experienced Stanley Cup playoff hockey, is the heartbeat of the team. Now is the time for him to snap out of his funk.
