Why separating Matthews and Marner may work better for Maple Leafs

Nikita Kucherov is an elite set-up man. He’s one of five players in NHL history to amass 100 assists in a single season.

Connor McDavid is an elite set-up man. He’s another of the five players in NHL history to amass 100 assists in a single season.

Leon Draisaitl is an elite set-up man. Over the past five years (including this one), he’s third in the NHL in assists, behind only McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon, who is also (obviously) an elite set-up man.

Kucherov is an elite goal scorer. Pro-rated to 82 games, Kucherov has seven seasons where he’s hit the 40-goal mark. He’s top-10 in goals over the past three seasons.

McDavid is an elite goal scorer. Heck, he has a Rocket Richard Trophy for a 64-goal season, ‘nuff said. Over the past five seasons, he’s fourth in the NHL in goals.

Draisaitl is an elite goal scorer. He’s tracking to win this year’s Rocket Richard and has the second-most goals in the NHL over the past five seasons. Going back a full decade, Draisaitl has scored the third-most goals, which is a few places ahead of MacKinnon who, I should note, is also an elite goal scorer.

Mitch Marner is an elite set-up man. Over the past five seasons, he’s fourth in assists, trailing only McDavid, Kucherov, and Draisaitl.

Auston Matthews is an elite goal scorer. Over the past five seasons he’s led the league in goals by leaps and bounds — more than a dozen ahead of second place Draisaitl and nearly three dozen ahead of David Pastrnak in third.

Here’s the thing, though: Marner is not an elite goal scorer, and Matthews is not an elite set-up man. 

Over the previous five seasons Marner is 44^th in goals, while Matthews is 48^th in assists. There are 32 teams in the league, which means they’re not in the “elite” echelon for those categories. It’s fair to say that no team game-planning for the Leafs says “Beware of Marner’s shot,” or “Be aware that Matthews can dish it too.”

Every name listed before Matthews and Marner in this article here has either won the Stanley Cup, or played in Game 7 of last year’s final. They are unpredictable offensive forces who will pass or shoot, which makes them hard to gameplan against. 

The two Leafs we’re discussing here are less so.

Zoomed out, Matthews and Marner have been elite offensive forces in the league since their rookie seasons. Over that time, they’re both in the top-10 in total points, with Matthews averaging 1.15 points per game, and Marner 1.13. But everybody — and I mean everybody — knows who’s going to pass and who’s going to shoot. They’ve had success together because they’re both insanely good at the thing they do best. But it’s becoming clearer to me that their unique tools should be used to help out other players. They do not need each other to be great. 

Here are Matthews’ stats when he does, and when he doesn’t, play with Marner over the past two seasons. 

Now, here are Marner’s numbers with and without Matthews.

What stands out to me most are the goals-to-assist rates. 

When Matthews is with Marner, he scores at nearly a 2:1 ratio of goals to assists, which is insane. In an admittedly small but relevant sample, Matthews has had more assists than goals without Marner. His points-per-game go up as well, and Matthews still scores at a 53-goal pace.

Marner also gets more points without Matthews in this limited sample, and it seems like he takes on more scoring responsibility without him. With more total points, Marner goes from scoring at a 0.3:1 goals-to-assist rate, to a scoring pace that would net him a 50-goal-season, as unsustainable as that may be.

To be clear, I do not believe if you break them up that Marner would score 50 and Matthews would be the second coming of Adam Oates. But if it at least pushes them to a more well-rounded direction, perhaps we’re on to something here.

Check out the following tweet posted this season and it’s hard to not at least scratch your chin and wonder what happens when they’re on the ice together:

Watching Toronto’s power play without Marner against Calgary on Tuesday night, it was borderline strange watching the Leafs snap it around so well in his absence.

Much like the Leafs’ power play without Matthews, it was like the team was freed of the burden of “Mitch has to pass it, Auston has to shoot it” when one of them isn’t there. They could take the best option that was available, which doesn’t sound like a wild concept, but is maybe one they’ve skirted in the past while they tried to force plays to their biggest stars.

To me, this one-dimensionality is all connected to their lack of post-season success. I was Sheldon Keefe’s video guy in the AHL for two playoff runs, and over those years we played in five playoff series, winning three. My job was busiest then, as it involved immersing myself in the video of our opponent, looking for trends and finding what they liked to do best so we could figure out how to take those things away. 

With the Leafs, you don’t need to watch a second of video. Everybody in the building knows what Marner wants to do, and they know where Matthews is trying to go. As good as they are at those things, if you work hard at shutting them down, it’s the equivalent of forcing a mediocre basketball player to go to their bad hand on a drive. 

Kucherov has 167 points in 147 playoff games not because he’s the fastest, or some big brute force. It’s because he can “drive with both hands” equally and exceptionally well, and teams trip all over themselves trying to take everything away all at once.

So as the Leafs head towards the playoffs, where their stars have typically struggled to score, does it not make sense to put Marner and Matthews in a position where they have to work on their “other hand” for a few months? If Matthews can become more of a distributor, will he not become a better scorer in playoffs? Would Marner’s passing not be a bigger threat if opponents started to think he might legitimately call his own number the odd time? 

The Leafs did start the 2024 playoffs with the two apart, but that series was a mess. Matthews was hurt, yet still managed to dominate a game the Leafs won when he wasn’t on a line with Marner. William Nylander missed games, Bobby McMann missed the whole series, Joseph Woll pulled out before Game 7, and so I’m not sure taking too many lessons from that series is all that smart. But I do think they had it right going into the playoffs: starting with Matthews and Marner apart is probably the best way to maximize the roster.

Of course, what the Leafs do at the trade deadline will have a big impact on the “Who should play with whom” game, but while they work towards that, the team should see if this small sample grows in similar fashion. Maybe it won’t, and they conclude these two should stay taped together.

But maybe it would work. 

In baseball, some good pitchers have good careers built on a straight heater, and others on junk. But the best can throw both, and keep the opposition guessing. McDavid, Kucherov, and the rest of the NHL’s best players have a whole bag of tricks. The Leafs’ biggest stars have been too one-dimensional, and that has led to one dimension of post-season outcomes.

Splitting them up could help unlock some of the other talent on Toronto’s roster, broaden their own games, and help them score the goals that have dried up so consistently in playoffs past.

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