Why Vlad Guerrero Jr.'s mega-extension doesn't help Pete Alonso or their fellow first basemen

There’s an old adage in baseball that says, “Pay players before they get good.” And through the first three weeks of the 2025 MLB season, we’ve seen several teams secure young members of their core for the long haul. While some — such as Padres star Jackson Merrill and Boston Red Sox rookie Kristian Campbell — were pre-arbitration players with little service time, others — such as Ketel Marte, Garrett Crochet and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — earned market value similar to what they would’ve received on the free-agent market.

But when it comes to comparing contract extensions, it’s important to note that one deal might not impact other free agents or players at the same position the way we’re used to thinking. To determine the market for a player, we tend to look for comparable deals from players in a similar tier based on age, position and past performance. Often, that’s helpful in setting a baseline, but with young superstars, those comparisons don’t always work.

Guerrero’s 14-year, $500 million extension with the Toronto Blue Jays stands out among this year’s signings as the third-largest contract by total value in MLB history. As a result, when it comes to using this deal as a comp for other first basemen, we should be careful. Guerrero isn’t setting the baseline for his fellow first basemen because with young superstars, position is meaningless. They exist in a separate, higher tier.

Other recent examples of this are Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year, $340 million deal with the San Diego Padres and Bobby Witt Jr.’s 11-year, $288.8 million deal with the Kansas City Royals. In these cases and many others, the players never reached free agency, as their teams secured all of their prime years and beyond with long-term extensions before the end of club control. Those two elite, young talents didn’t raise the floor for their position groups, but they did increase the earning potential of their fellow young superstars.

When you see a deal like the one signed by Guerrero, a first baseman, it’s natural for your mind to shift to Mets first baseman Pete Alonso. Alonso, who agreed with the Mets this winter on a two-year, $54 million deal with an opt-out after 2025, had a very slow and limited free-agent market. It’s natural to think that Guerrero’s deal would raise the floor for Alonso — and all other first basemen — should he decide to opt out after this season and try free agency again.

But besides their shared position, the two couldn’t be further apart. Not only is Alonso six years older than Guerrero, but they’re also completely different players. While Alonso has been one of baseball’s most prodigious power hitters, with the second-most homers in baseball since he debuted in 2019, Guerrero is a significantly better and more well-rounded hitter, slashing .288/.363/.498 in his career compared to Alonso’s 251/.342/.518. 

And while the Mets’ first baseman is a proven run producer, Guerrero already has two top-six finishes in AL MVP voting, including being runner-up behind Shohei Ohtani in 2021.

Now, that doesn’t mean Alonso isn’t a good player. Defensively and on the basepaths, while the eye test gives the edge to Guerrero, Alonso has actually graded out better by DRS and BsR in recent years. Still, the reality is that his earning potential is a lot different than Guerrero’s, even though they play the same position. Guerrero resides in that young superstar tier; Alonso does not.

A better comp for Guerrero might be Cubs right fielder Kyle Tucker. Tucker, who was traded to Chicago this past offseason and will be a free agent at the end of 2025, is in line to be the best player available next winter now that the Toronto superstar is off the market.

Tucker, 28, is much closer in age to Vladdy and exists in that top superstar tier of the market. Since his debut in 2020, the Cubs’ outfielder ranks eighth in wRC+, ninth in stolen bases and 11th in WAR. The three-time All-Star has been one of the best five-tool players in MLB, with a league-leading 32 defensive runs saved in the same span. Not to mention, he was a World Series champion in 2022 with the Astros.

With his talent, youth and accolades separating him from the bulk of next winter’s free agents — and from the bulk of his fellow outfielders — Tucker will be as in demand as any free agent, and he’ll be in position to cash in along the lines of Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and Juan Soto, who were in a similar age group and superstar tier when they reached free agency.

The groundwork laid by Guerrero's deal only helps the Cubs’ superstar this offseason. And just as Guerrero’s deal benefits Tucker — rather than his position group — expect Tucker’s future mega-deal to raise the floor primarily for the next young superstar who comes after him.