Why Winnipeg could maintain league-leading pace after historic start
Off to the best start in NHL history with a 14-1-0 record and a five point lead on anyone else in the league standings, Adam Vingan explains that even when the Winnipeg Jets cool off, there’s still plenty of sustainability in the way the team plays.
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The Winnipeg Jets are steamrolling their competition. On Saturday, they became the first team in NHL history to win 14 of their first 15 games, outscoring opponents 67-31 along the way.
It is easy to forget that the Jets finished last season with the fourth-best record in the league (52-24-6). To be fair, Winnipeg was crushed by the Colorado Avalanche in the first round of the playoffs, giving up 28 goals over five games. Clearly, though, the Jets got the message.
“It’s not always a straight line to the top,” said Jets forward Kyle Connor, who has nine goals and 19 points this season. “You’ve got to learn. You’ve got to develop. You’re seeing that here.”
So just how real are these Jets? They inevitably will cool off, because no team can maintain this torrid pace over a full season. But there are indicators that suggest the Jets will be more than OK once regression hits.
For starters, Winnipeg remains a top defensive team. The Jets rank third in expected goals against per 60 minutes in all situations (2.71) — an improvement over last season, when they were seventh in that category (2.84). Although the Jets are allowing 60.8 shot attempts per 60 (24th), most of them are coming from the outside. Just 36.1 per cent of shots taken against the Jets have come in the slot, the best rate in the league.
When the Jets have had defensive breakdowns, Connor Hellebuyck has been there to bail out his teammates. The reigning Vezina Trophy winner, whose recent shutout streak of 191:47 set a franchise record, has picked up where he left off last regular season.
Hellebuyck has recorded seven quality starts and a league-leading three steals in 12 games this season. Goaltenders are credited with a quality start when they post a positive goals saved above expected. A steal occurs when the amount of goals saved above expected is greater than the margin of victory. (Hellebuyck, for example, stole the Jets’ 1-0 win against the Avalanche last week by saving 2.71 goals above expected.)
Offensively, the Jets are unlikely to keep shooting 14.3 per cent in all situations and scoring on 41.9 per cent of their power-play opportunities. Since the league began tracking power-play percentage in 1977-78, only the 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers (42.6 PP%) had a higher success rate through 15 games.
Even when that shooting percentage dips, Winnipeg’s improved shot quality should prevent it from plummeting. The Jets are top 10 in expected goals for per 60 after finishing 15th a season ago.
Jets coach Scott Arniel has put together a forward lineup with impressive scoring balance. The Jets’ top three lines have all scored at least nine goals when on the ice at 5-on-5.
Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry and Mason Appleton make up arguably the most underrated line in the league, outscoring opponents 10-1 and generating 68.4 per cent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 — the latter of which is fourth highest among 68 forward combinations that have played at least 60 minutes. They punish opponents off the cycle; Winnipeg has a 26-17 edge in those scoring chances when its third line is on the ice.
“It’s real simple for me,” Arniel told reporters after the team’s history-making win against the Dallas Stars on Saturday. “It is such a team effort. This isn’t (Connor Hellebuyck) winning every game. This isn’t (Mark) Scheifele’s line winning us every game. To me, this is 23 guys. This has been unbelievable in the sense of how everybody has contributed.”
The next few weeks will show us who the Jets truly are. Nine of Winnipeg’s next 10 games are on the road, starting Tuesday against the New York Rangers. Eight are against playoff teams from last season, including two dates with the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers.
“It’s been an amazing run,” Arniel told reporters. “It’s been fun. But we like winning a whole lot better than the alternative so I’d like to keep this going longer.”
All stats via Sportlogiq
